I was originally planning on offering my take on what the outcome of the 2009 elections “meant.” In fact, I still reserve the right to do so at some point in the near future. That said, there were a couple of post-2009 pieces I read lately that I found to be very important reads and successfully articulated many of the points I wanted to raise. Below are some quick synopses of these pieces, followed by a link to the full article:
The Most Absurd Post-Election Spin
Jay Cost
Cost, who in my world is one of the most brilliant political analysts out there, writes:
The gold [prize for most absurd post-election spin] must go to the ridiculous notion that the GOP is in so much trouble because it is divided, as evidenced by the results in NY-23. Never mind the fact that the party came together in New Jersey and Virginia…
The reason it gets the gold is not by an error of commission, but of omission. For, the GOP’s divisions – whatever they may be – are utterly, totally dwarfed by the continuing divisions in the Democratic Party. Not only in scale, but in significance. Republicans might be divided over the symbolic role of Sarah Palin in the party, but Democrats are divided over what to do about health care.
Cost’s entire piece can be read here.
Tuesday’s Suburban Vote Swing
Karl Rove
Barack Obama was said to have redrawn the electoral map by winning Virginia last year with 53% of the vote. On Tuesday, Republican Bob McDonnell flipped the state back to the GOP, winning his election for governor with 59% of the vote. Mr. Obama carried New Jersey easily last year with 57% of the vote. This year, despite being outspent 3-to-1, Republican Chris Christie ousted Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine there by 49% to 45%. Mr. Obama carried Pennsylvania last year by 10 points. On Tuesday, Republican Judge Joan Orie Melvin was elected to the state’s Supreme Court by 53% to 47%, leading a GOP sweep of six of seven statewide contests.
The trend here is that suburban and independent voters moved into the GOP column. The overall shift away from Democrats was 13 points in Virginia, 12 points in New Jersey, and eight points in Pennsylvania.
Even a five-point swing in 2010 could bring a tidal wave of change. Today, Democrats enjoy 60 votes in the Senate, Republicans a mere 40. Had there been a five-point swing away from Democrats last fall, the party would have started this year with 54 seats and the Republicans 46.
A five-point shift in 2006 would have left the GOP in control of the House. In 2008, a five-point shift would have produced a Democratic loss of six House seats rather than a gain of 21. It would also have put John McCain into the White House with 279 Electoral College votes to Mr. Obama’s 259.
Looking ahead, the bad news for Democrats is that the legislation that helped lead to the collapse of support for their party on Tuesday could yet inflict more pain on those foolish enough to support it. The health-care bill House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to vote on this week could sink an entire fleet of Democratic boats in 2010.
Rove’s entire piece can be read here.
What Did NY-23 Mean?
Jon Henke
The story of NY-23 is not “conservatives beat moderates” or “conservative loses to Democrat”.
The story of NY-23 is “the Right starts dismantling the Republican establishment.” This is about how the Republican Party is defined and who defines it.
Henke’s entire piece can be read here.
Warning sign for Democrats: They’re losing independents
Steven Thomma
President Barack Obama and the Democrats have a problem heading into next year’s elections for control of Congress — they’re losing independents to the Republicans and parts of their own Democratic base to apathy.
Strong majorities of independents turned away from Democrats and voted Republican in both Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday, a key defection signaling that they could be up for grabs heading into the 2010 elections. They went for the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Virginia by a margin of 66 percent to 33 percent, and in New Jersey by 60 percent to 40 percent, according to exit polls.
Magnifying the challenge, the swing isn’t limited to those two states. A new McClatchy-Ipsos poll found that independents have pulled away from Obama steadily for months and have turned sharply against his highest domestic priority, the plan to overhaul the nation’s health care system.
Thomma’s entire piece can be read here.
Last 5 posts by Aaron Marks
- Onward and Upward: Building a Sustainable Majority - January 22nd, 2010
- Dear Young Voters: This Is What You Get When You Don't Vote - December 1st, 2009
- The Youth Vote and the 2009 Elections - November 6th, 2009
- Introducing NextGenGOP Executive Director James Kane - October 20th, 2009
- Could Afghanistan Become Obama's Iraq? - September 1st, 2009
