The diving poll numbers, changing of major campaign promises, and especially the infighting between Congressional Democrats on health care reform is a sign of what many rational political observers have known all along. American voters may have given the Democrats a “super-majority” in Congress and the keys to the White House, but this is still a center-right country. Anything that even looks like nationalized health care to voters will not be accepted, even by the very Democrats who gave the party their majority.

While Americans want health care reform, they want the reform to bring prices down. That doesn’t translate to them wanting the government to take over for insurance companies. Leftist Democrats always overplay their hand when it comes to health care (see: HillaryCare) and the current attempt doesn’t look much wiser.

The current Congressional situation may very well be the equivalent to the Conservative Coalition that held major sway in the late 1930s and 40s. Blue Dog Democrats are fiscally conservative and, after coming to power by promising to be better Republicans than the Republicans were being in 2006, they will not vote for constant budget explosions, no matter how much pressure the Obama/Pelosi/Reid Triumvirate puts on them. For the Blue Dogs, this is a question of politics as much as it was a question of ideology for the Conservative Coalition. Blue Dogs know they come from conservative, normally Republican-friendly districts. Most of those districts have Republicans waiting in the electoral bullpen, just waiting for a Blue Dog to act too much like a Liberal Democrat to launch campaigns against them.

The Blue Dogs look like a politically savvy group, which is good and bad news for us Republicans. Good news because it means the worst of the Administration proposals may not make it out of committee, bad because it will be difficult for Republicans to steal their seats and regain a majority as long as the Blue Dogs vote fiscally conservative. Even non-Blue Dog Democrats admit their more conservative party members might have a better grasp on what the country wants than the rest of their party.

“These guys are the majority makers,” said Democrat John Dingell, an influential Representative from Michigan. “These guys gotta fight to stay. … They can warn us about pitfalls that we, in our arrogance, may not see. Their concerns are legitimate.”

This is why as troubling as the ironically named “America’s Affordable Health Choices Act” is, I am not troubled enough to think Congress will pass anything resembling its current form. This is not the change the country was looking for, and any Democrat smart enough to beat us at our own game knows that. Now if only we can figure out how to beat them.

Last 5 posts by Abel S. Delgado

• Let’s Support the Cantwell-McCain Bill - January 6th, 2010
• Deeds Gets Dirty, Doesn’t Win Anyway - November 2nd, 2009
• Obama & The Berlin Wall - October 25th, 2009
• The Nobel Prom King - October 11th, 2009
• Bureaucratizing Interrogations a Horrible Idea - August 28th, 2009