I must admit that I still haven’t decided where I stand on the PA Senate race. In 2004, I backed Specter for various reasons, but my patience with Specter has thinned considerably, particularly considering his vote on Obama’s stimulus package. I’ve always doubted Pat Toomey’s capacity to carry Pennsylvania, which I believe is today a fairly safe blue state. I worked for Senator Santorum in 2006 and saw first hand just how hard it is for conservatives to win in PA. Jay Cost that “calculates the expected ideological score of the next U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania, whether it be Arlen Specter, Pat Toomey or somebody else.” Cost concludes:
I tried my hand at this for half an hour or so, and the only reasonable situations I could find where the Senate shifts to the right are where Specter’s chances of defeating Toomey increase.
It’s a pretty fascinating look at the potential outcomes of the race, and something I think every Republican should consider in making their decision of whom they should support in 2010. Personally, I’m still undecided, but the numbers reaffirm many of my thoughts toward the race. Cost also notes:
Final word. As you noodle with this, remember that in 2004 Toomey and Specter spent a total of $20 million between the primary and the general election. That number presumably will be higher next year – so whatever movement to the right you can generate is purchased at a very high price, with dollars that could go to help other Republican candidates.
What do you think? Who do you plan to support in 2010?
Last 5 posts by Aaron Marks
- Onward and Upward: Building a Sustainable Majority - January 22nd, 2010
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- The Youth Vote and the 2009 Elections - November 6th, 2009
- The Best of the Post-2009 Election Spin - November 5th, 2009
- Introducing NextGenGOP Executive Director James Kane - October 20th, 2009
My belief is that Republicans got into the mess they are in … representation by RINOs only … because we “settled” for candidates who could win but were not constitutional fiscal conservatives. I’m not sure it makes a difference whether we have RINOs or dems in office since they all vote alike.
If conservatives are going to make a grass roots change, then in my opinion, we cannot “settle” for the candidate we think has the greatest chance of winning when he acts, talks, and votes like a dem. We need to do the hard work necessary to educate the public and gain support for public servants who will work FOR US and uphold the constitution.
I don’t know anything about Toomey and I’m not in Pennsylvania, but there would be an ice storm down below before I’d vote for turncoat Specter.
While we may not always like the way Specter votes, we have to understand the Demographics of the PA. Specter was only one of three Republicans to vote for the stimulus (with the other two representing liberal states as well).
The GOP would be making a HUGE mistake if they opted to run a more conservative candidate than Specter.
Aaron, don’t you think that Senator Santorum’s loss can be better blamed on his own foibles rather than his “conservative credentials?” In many respects, Senator Casey ran a center-right campaign. Setting aside Santorum’s personal faults that led to his defeat, I don’t know how a Senate gets appreciably more liberal when our current senior senator voted with the Ds when it mattered most. I respect his decision on Card Check, but highly doubt that any future PA senator other than Pat Toomey will vote against Card Check in the future. Toomey can win just like Rick won in ’94 — as a reformer in a time of profligate federal spending and run away Congress. I have faith in the Commonwealth.
To some degree what you say about Sen. Santorum’s loss may be true, but I honestly believe that Pennsylvania is at the moment a solidly blue state. It would be great if the environment in 2010 was like 1994, but unfortunately I just don’t see it being that way.
I have voted almost my whole life in PA, and have never voted for Arlen in a primary or general. I don’t expect that to change.
But the money argument makes a ton of sense, to me. If we are to reform the GOP into a party that pays more than lip service to mainstream conservative issues and fiscal responsibility, it will happen from the ground up.
In PA that means General Assembly, County Commissioners, Councilpeople, school boards, and the stray congresscritter. That’s how real reform will happen. And with Specter and Toomey sucking all the air out of the room in 2010 massive amounts of money and activist time will be misspent regardless of the outcome.
[note: my CAPTCHA was "would Paterno". What would JoePa, do in this case? I say he would suggest we let Specter while away his time in the Senate and pay closer attention to what's right in front of our noses.]
I’m with Specter on this one. He comes through for the party when he is needed. On the Obama stimulus plan, Specter was nowhere near being the deciding vote.
Ideally, I would prefer to see Toomey because I am more aligned with his views politically. However, the fact of the matter is that Specter stands a much greater chance of defeating the Democratic candidate in light of the massive Democratic mobilization that has been occuring since 2006. Given the Democratic proximity to the 60-vote filibuster-proof threshold, it is imperitive that the Republicans of the Commonwealth support the candidate that will win, even if he crosses the aisle more often than we would prefer. Therefore, it is politically with a heavy heart but pragmatically without reservation that I support Specter for reelection in the 2010 election.
I’ve never truly bought the argument that we need to back candidates that are more likely to win the state. While senators should reflect their home states, they should also be a net positive to our country. I’m not convinced that Arlen Specter represents that. I appreciate his efforts in the Judiciary committee, but his actions in the Appropriations committee have been fiscally reprehensible.
Moreover, I’ve been a fan of Pat Toomey and the Club for Growth for a long time. I’ve never believed in keeping incumbents in office for incumbency’s sake. This is the path to dangerous stagnation within the party and within the government. Pat Toomey has a record of honest politics by avoiding earmarks and sticking to his term limit (unlike many of the 1994 Republicans!) Moreover, Pat Toomey has a great fiscal record.
Rather than encouraging the big-government Republican behavior that got us into this mess, I’ll be voting for Toomey.
i really want to support Toomney because he is the only conservative in the race, and hoping he can win the general, but it will be a uphill battle!
The Republicans must support Toomey in the primary because Arlen Specter no longer votes or believes in fundamental conservative beliefs. Arlen has chosen to vote in line with the Democrats, thus even if Toomey does not win the general election, having Arlen Specter win would be the same result as if a Democrat one anyway.
If you vote for Arlen Specter, you deserve what you get. The reason we are still stuck with a piece of crap like Specter is become we’ve been settling for 18 years. You never get a better candidate if you keep the crappy one in and block anybody better from moving up.
Specter has betrayed not just his party but his country with votes like that porkulus bill which he didn’t read. He has voted for judges who shred our Constitution and try to impose foreign laws on America.
Specter is a loser, period. He won’t even win the general election because democrats don’t like him any more than we do. We are the only ones stupid enough to vote for him out of some misguided sense of loyalty (which he doesn’t return).
Santorum lost in PA by 20 points. He could have cured cancer and it wouldn’t have mattered. Bob Casey was such a retard he literally couldn’t answer questions during debates. The guy wouldn’t even show up half the time but it didn’t matter. Casey being ‘pro-life’ was a non-issue because the democrat machine wanted the seat back and there was absolutely no tailwind for the GOP because Bush had completely stopped being a republican and had allowed Fitzgerald to gut the WH of anything with political acumen like Rove.
We’ll never, ever, ever have a respectable Senator from PA unless we are willing to dump the whores like Specter. He is an embarassment to PA and to the GOP.