The Daily Kos about this nation’s overall political ideology, about what the results of the Georgia run-off and this year’s Congressional elections as a whole say about the makeup of the electorate. MyDD’s conclusion, based on the number of Republican and Democratic Senators in each state, is as follows:
To review, that’s about a 2:1:1 ratio for left:center:right, with the cumulative left+center:right ratio of 3:1.
It’s ridiculous to claim that this sort of analysis actually depicts the true political attitudes of the public. Many factors go into who wins an election, making it extremely difficult to draw conclusions about the voters’ political ideologies by simply looking at the returns. These factors include voter turnout, prevailing issues (in 2002 and 2004, for example, it was national security, while in 2008, the economy was looming on people’s minds), scandals (see: ), and even feelings about the incumbent President.
Indeed, the actual data paints a much different picture. Let’s start with the exit polls from this year’s election. According to CNN, the national picture in (despite Obama’s sweeping victory) looks like this:
2008 National Exit Poll
|
Liberal
|
Moderate
|
Conservative
|
|
22%
|
44%
|
34%
|
How much different are these results from ? Take a look yourself:
2004 National Exit Poll
|
Liberal
|
Moderate
|
Conservative
|
|
21%
|
45%
|
34%
|
So essentially, these numbers suggest a 1% net gain among liberals and a 1% loss among moderates in 2008. To me, that sounds like a nearly identical electorate from 2004 to 2008. And the 2008 numbers unambiguously suggest a much more center-right electorate than a center-left electorate – 78% of voters identify as either moderate or conservative, while 66% identify as either moderate or liberal.
What about other polls – do they portray a different picture? In 2007, Rasmussen Reports (consistently one of the in the nation) conducted on this question. The results looked like this:
Rasmussen Reports Poll: Fiscal and Social Conservatives
| Fiscal | Social | Percentage |
| Cons. | Cons. | 24% |
| Mod. | Mod. | 17% |
| Mod. | Lib. | 14% |
| Mod. | Cons. | 11% |
| Cons. | Mod. | 10% |
| Lib. | Lib. | 9% |
| Cons. | Lib. | 6% |
In total, 62% of respondents were either moderate or conservative on both fical and social issues, while only 23% were either moderate or liberal on both issues. That certainly doesn’t sound like a center-left electorate.
An AP-Ipsos poll from August 2008 presents to both the Rasmussen poll and the exit poll:
AP-Ipsos Poll: “Do you consider yourself a liberal, moderate or conservative?”
| Very Liberal | 8% |
| Somewhat Liberal | 14% |
| Moderate | 35% |
| Somewhat Conservative | 22% |
| Very Conservative | 16% |
| Total Liberal | 22% |
| Total Moderate | 35% |
| Total Conservative | 38% |
Yes, Barack Obama may have decidedly won this election, and Democats may have made significant gains in the House and Senate. However, just as Saxby Chamberliss’ victory last night does not prove that this is a center-right nation, neither do the results of November 4 prove that this is a center-left nation. The data indicates that this country remains steadfastly center-right – a promising prospect for 2010 and beyond, if the Republican Party is willing to take the “right” steps.
Last 5 posts by Aaron Marks
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The data may “speak for itself”, but when you allow respondents to “speak for themselves”, and employ self-identification as your sole datapoint to determine the relative left-ness or right-ness of the general population, you are looking at a very subjective measure.
In a time when the word “liberal” (rightly or wrongly) has been widely used as an epithet and the social safety net has been characterized as just another handout to “welfare queens”, it is no wonder that even those who appreciate the value of government entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid, HeadStart, and Social Security would be reluctant to self-identify as “Liberal”.
In fact, only the extreme Left now is willing to self-identify as “”Liberal”, while the term “conservative” has a much less pejorative usage in mainstream American culture and is used to denote a cautious, deliberate, prudent political philosophy, despite the irony of the past eight years of “Conservative” majority rule.
Everything depends on the definition of “Moderate.” Given the outcome of the 2008 elections, a credible case can be made that a majority of Moderates are actually liberal, or at least left-leaning. Therefore, you can’t simply add Moderates as a group to both the Conservative and Liberal columns, and make a judgment based on their respective totals.
Any accurate assessment would require either: a deeper poll, which asks self-identified Moderates ideological questions to determine their leanings; or else a simpler poll, which asks voters to self-identify as either Liberal or Conservative, with no Moderate choice offered. Otherwise, it’s impossible to make a credible case one way or the other.